Технологічні та соціальні передумови індустріальних революцій: крок до майбутнього

Abstract

Розглянуто періодизацію індустріальних (промислових) революцій XVIII–XX ст. Охарактеризовані соціально-політичні умови в періоди промислових революцій та взаємний вплив технологічних перетворень і соціальних процесів на цих часових інтервалах. Прослідковано розвиток економічної думки у зв’язку з революційними технологічними перетвореннями світової виробничої системи у межах співвідношень принципів економічного зростання та економічного розвитку. Висловлено гіпотезу про сутнісні перспективи четвертої промислової революції.

The industrial revolutions are seen as new technological challenges that government would like to provide. At the same time, the concept of revolution is associated with social chaos, which is a serious obstacle possible through extrapolation to predict the specific content of new technological and social challenges. The doubts about the possibility to find the strength and to confront these challenges are lead to thoughts – would not have been worse. The industrial revolution, in contrast to social revolutions, is not only unexpected, but greatly not desirable event for most citizens. Although the industrial revolution is accompanied by events that activate and exacerbate social processes, but the industrial revolution is still the path to global good, at least for their remote consequences, in a time when social revolutions are purely local in nature and usually the result of political differences. It is believed that the previous three industrial revolutions were based on alternate new understanding of the role of one of the elements of universe forming a triad: substance (steam engine, 1780-ies), energy (electromagnetic field, 1860-ies) and information (electronic computers, 1940-ies). On the basis of this periodization of events, we can assume that the fourth industrial revolution with a high probability should be expected in the 2020-ies. At the same time, one of the most common views about the technological basis of a new revolution is that the framework should be comprehensive. This, according to many scientists is the socalled NBIC-technologies (Nano-Bio-Info-Cogni), which, in fact, traced the same triple of substance, energy and information. It is really: nanotechnologies represent a new, which is already practically used, structural properties of matter; modern biotechnology provides us with new, more efficient energy options; cognitive technologies demonstrate the advantages of information sharing concepts instead of sharing discrete and analog signals. The fourth element is information technology – is present here only as the basis of the core technology of the previous industrial revolution that has not yet exhausted its possibilities. Prior to the period of the first industrial revolution is the turning point in the views of the social role of the economy, as evidenced by the attempt of the French physician Francois Quesnay give physiokrats description of the relations in the economy different sectors of society, and the emergence of more well-known fundamental economic difficulty of the English philosopher Adam Smith " An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations". In the 1850s – 1870s (the period of the second industrial revolution), a dramatic transformation occurred in the economy that is associated with the names of Karl Marx and Alfred Marshall. And if Marx has shown convincingly the social contradictions of capitalism, then A. Marshall was able with one voice to explain the principles of the classical economic theory of marginalism, which marked the beginning of the theory of entrepreneurship. The period of the third industrial revolution is characterized by the clarification of the role of the state in managing the economy, along with the undoubted character of its market. Come in sight the doctrine of Keynes, which eventually improved to the so-called neokeynesionism. However, there are new ideas about the market behavior of business entities. These views were connected with the attempt of Friedrich Hayek to understand the role of information as a factor in the effectiveness of market behavior. The main issue is the question of the technological core of the new industrial revolution. If we accept the hypothesis of the predestination of direction of change ready for the revolutionary transformation of the elements of the triad universe, we can assume that revolutionary technological changes will occur through the development of new properties of matter. But the main thesis that I would like to defend is that of the industrial revolution, in contrast to social revolutions, carry a charge of new benefits and new opportunities of development for all humanity