Доходи як індикатор добробуту населення: регіональний аспект

Abstract

Досліджено структуру та динаміку доходів населення. Визначено, що доходи є індикатором добробуту населення. Здійснено ґрунтовне аналізування номінальних та реального доходів за регіонами України і виокремлено регіони з високим та з низьким рівнем добробуту населення. На основі моделювання статистичних даних по регіонах України за 2013–2016 рр. побудовано та рекомендовано використовувати з метою прогнозування зміни мінімальної заробітної плати та тарифної сітки з оплати праці регресійну модель, що ґрунтується на встановленні взаємозв’язку між темпами приросту доходу, валового регіонального продукту та інфляції.

The welfare of the population in Ukraine is heterogeneous. However, it depends not only on the personal qualities of the individual, but also on the environment in which this individual functions, including the climatic conditions, degree of local infrastructure, remoteness from markets for certain products and so on. Such heterogeneity determines the relevance of research income, particularly by the regions of the country for determining the level of welfare in general. The main purpose of the article was to establish the relationship between income of population and the level of their welfare in the regions. Certain tasks were to study the dynamics of population income by regions of Ukraine, a comparison between the dynamics of the various components of income and construct a model of the relationship of income, inflation and gross regional product as an indicator of economic performance in the region. In the article the structure and dynamics of population income was researched. It was determined income as an indicator of population welfare. The biggest share of income makes wage and social benefits and other current transfers, which in 2016 occupied respectively 43.52 % and 35.22 %. Profit and mixed income which received by population, primarily from doing business, was in 2016 17.38 % of all income and constantly increase. Property income decreased in 2016 compared to 2015, which was the root cause of falling prices for real estate rental market, rather than reducing the number of operations that were carried out in this market. The share of social assistance and other current transfers in the income Ukraine for 2013– 2016 gradually decreased, but its value was considerable and needed to be revised by government policy at forming the structure of income and wages. Detailed attention is focused on the growth rate of population income (nominal, actual and real), by region, as well as the dynamics of the average wage, the average pension and subsistence minimum in Ukraine. A special focus of the research was done on the amounts and structure of unpaid wages by region, as well as the current state of pension arrears in Ukraine in general. Regression model was generated for forecasting the necessary level of population income, which will ensure its planned level of welfare. This model combines the relationship between nominal income growth, inflation and growth in gross regional product. As the dependent variable there was used nominal population income, and as independent variables – rate inflation and the growth rate of the gross regional product. In order to construct such a model it was processed relevant statistical data by regions of Ukraine in 2013-2016. It is recommended for state and local governments to use such regression model for regulating population income and ensuring the planned level of welfare. The model is made possible forecasting planned changes of the minimum wage and the tariff adjustment of wage. It is noted that further researches need to focus on ensuring the convergence of regional development in order to balance the population welfare by rates for its income.