Безпековий потенціал ЄС: геополітичний та соціо-економічний виміри

Abstract

Проаналізовано показники окремих складових геополітичного та соціо-економічного вимірів безпекового потенціалу ЄС порівняно з аналогічними показниками потенціалів інших впливових акторів. Враховано як істотні переваги ЄС, так й показники слабкості, що дало змогу визначити місце та силу цього інтеграційного об’єднання як у регіональному вимірі, так і у глобальній системі. Вказано, що нові держави-члени ЄС надають суттєвих переваг об’єднанню на міжнародній арені, незважаючи на свій порівняно нижчий соціально-економічний рівень. The article analyzes indicators of certain constituents of geopolitical and socio-economic dimensions of the EU’s security potential in comparison with similar indicators of potentials of other powerful international actors. The analysis is accomplished in the context of the problems and prospects of further development of this integration union and its reaction to the newest threats to international and European security. Both the substantial advantages and indicators of weakness of the EU are considered by analyzing political and economic experts’ predictions concerning actual and future state of affairs in the EU in 2016. These indicators in their aggregate have given an opportunity to determine the place and strength of this integration union in both regional dimension and global security system. Taking into account the basic geographic, demographic, social and economic indexes (which primarily are compared with the economic strength of the USA) of the EU’s security potential, significant achievements of the EU, substantiated by the fact of cumulative potential of 28 EU members-states, are ascertained. Such potential is considerably higher in comparison to particular capabilities of the EU’s member-states. Thus, it is indicated that under geopolitical criterion after the last fifth enlargement of the EU (due to accession of Romania, Bulgaria (2007) and Croatia (2013)), its area expanded by nearly 25 %; however, it is smaller in comparison to Russia and the USA). Taking into consideration that EU covers 3 % of the globe, its consequential position on the geopolitical map of the world is mentioned. Furthermore, under security standpoint the growth of union’s population is analysed. The fact of considerable number of EU citizens is identified as positive, especially taking into consideration formation of the large target market and high purchasing power of citizens, etc. However, the article indicates challenges in this domain related to persistent depopulation in Europe in comparison to planetary population, which along with ageing trends carry significant security risks. Thus, the new EU member-states provide significant advantages to the association on the international arena, despite their comparatively lower social and economic level. Furthermore, in political science comparative studies of global actors’ potentials in the military sphere should be considered as perspective, in order to identify and prevent threats to national, regional and global security.