Економічне оцінювання та державне регулювання техногенних збитків в національному господарстві

Abstract

Дисертацію присвячено розробленню концептуальних і методологічних положень, а також прикладних рекомендацій щодо економічного оцінювання та державного регулювання техногенних збитків у національному господарстві України. Розроблено методологічні засади з оцінювання, моделювання та прогнозування рівнів техногенної захворюваності та техногенної смертності населення України, що враховує деструктивний вплив господарської діяльності на довкілля, суспільство й економіку. Обґрунтовано модель техносолітону на основі індустріального симбіозу економічних структур, що використовують побічні продукти взаємодії, яка дозволяє сформувати умови для досягнення «майже нульових» техногенних збитків за рахунок стрімкого зменшення техногенного забруднення довкілля (викидів, скидів, відходів) та використання «замкнених» технологій збору, перероблення, утилізування техногенних відходів. Розроблено метод вибору механізму державного регулювання техногенних збитків у національному господарстві відповідно до рівня деструктивного впливу господарської діяльності, в основу якого покладено модель нечіткого кластеризування видів економічної діяльності та їх просторової концентрації за складовими факторів виникнення техногенних збитків. Разработаны методологические основы по оценке, моделированию и прогнозированию уровней техногенной заболеваемости и техногенной смертности населения Украины, учитывающие деструктивное влияние хозяйственной деятельности на окружающую среду, общество и экономику. Обоснованная модель техносолитона на основе индустриального симбиоза экономических структур, использующих побочные продукты взаимодействия позволяет сформировать условия для достижения «почти нулевого» техногенного ущерба за счет стремительного уменьшения техногенного загрязнения окружающей среды (выбросов, сбросов, отходов) и использования «замкнутых» технологий сбора, переработки, утилизации техногенных отходов. В основу разработанного метода выбора механизма государственного регулирования техногенного ущерба в национальном хозяйстве в соответствии с уровнем деструктивного влияния хозяйственной деятельности положена модель нечеткой кластеризации видов экономической деятельности и их пространственной концентрации по составляющим факторов возникновения техногенного ущерба. The thesis is dedicated to solving scientific and applied problem of development of conceptual positions, methodological approaches and applied principles of economic evaluation assessment and government regulation of technogenic (man-made) damage in the national economy of Ukraine. There have been developed methodological bases of evaluation, modeling and forecasting levels of technogenic morbidity and technogenic mortality of population in Ukraine. The proposed approach allows determining the proportion of total morbidity or mortality caused by destructive influence of technogenic impact on the basis of the proposed model of fuzzy-logic expert system. The study of indirect teсhnogenic damage in the national economy allowed us to establish the following: interdependences between the amount of pollution (emissions of pollutants into the air, discharges into water and the resulting waste) and deterioration of health in Ukraine (morbidity and mortality) set in the interval of 1992 - 2012 by multivariate correlative-regressive analysis. The built regressive economic-mathematical models for disease levels allowed predicting their values in 2015 and 2016. The economic evaluation and prediction of the required volumes of reimbursement for health care of people living in a polluted environment showed a significant increase of costs on health care in optimistic forecast and their rapid growth in pessimistic forecast. This made it possible to economically evaluate and predict indirect teсhnogenic damage in the national economy to be considered in the formation of an adequate tax policy and provide a separate technogenic (industrial) tax. In order to prepare the conditions for achieving «almost zero» man-made damage due to rapid reduction of technogenic pollution (emissions, discharges, waste) and the use of «closed» technologies for collecting, processing, utilizing technogenic waste, the teсhnosoliton model has been proposed. The proposed model was developed on the basis of industrial symbiosis of economic structures that use by-product synergy. There has been proposed a method of selecting the government regulation of technogenic (man-made) losses in the national economy in general and in every kind of economic activities, according to the destructive influence of economic activity. The basis of the proposed method lies in the model of clustering types of economic activities and their spatial concentration according to the components of factors of appearance of technogenic damage. There has been improved the classification of man-made losses in the national economy, which, unlike others, is systemized by the classification features of the essence of man-made losses: manifestations of the interaction influences of economic, social, environmental and organizational systems, delay of effects (effects of the time lag), methods of regulation, types of economic activities. With the aim of economic evaluation of system changes of the quality of human and natural capital and identification of the necessary expenses for reimbursement, it has been improved the system of indicators evaluating technogenic damage, loss and damage caused to the national economy. Unlike systems developed by other scientists, the proposed system includes a number of indicators of technogenic damage capacity and technogenic loss capacity. There has been improved a methodological approach to comprehensive economic evaluation of man-made losses in every kind of economic activity of the national economy of Ukraine, which, unlike the existing ones, allows to determine these man-made damages based on the results of the evaluation of man-made damage, loss or damage by the values of the proposed indicators (specific resource consumption, natural resource, fuel, energy, water capacity, waste and expense capacity etc.) for certain types of economic activity, and within the entire national economy. There has been improved the system of tax instruments and methods of government regulation of technogenic losses in the mechanism of management of national economy, which, unlike the existing ones, allows to choose the tax instruments as within the whole national economy and individual regions depending on the destructive impact of economic activities established by the factor of technogenic damage. Further development has been established between the factors of man-made damages based on trending patterns of the factors of destructive impact on the environment and society by economic activity, levels of perception of the impact of recipients and their level of economic evaluation method for ranking derived models that, unlike the existing ones, provided a sufficient degree of probability of the predicted values for the next three years of the studied variables of certain types of factors of technogenic losses for which it there has been established a steady relationship between them. There has been expanded a scientific and methodical approach to economic assessment tasks (in terms of total flows of technogenic waste) and projected (by riskiness of emergencies) man-made damage caused by ordinary and extraordinary economic activities of enterprises in different economic activities of the national economy, which, unlike existing one, is based on the use of resources consumed stages of evaluation; exploring production technologies; collecting data on technogenic waste streams; analysis of comprehensive loss data, damages, costs and risks of emergency situations in different economic activities and in the national economy in general. Further development has been made in terms of conceptual provisions of the national logistics system aimed at introduction of government regulation of technogenic damage, which, unlike existing national logistic systems, the management of resources, information and financial flows in the national economy is carried out by taking into account the principles of «green» economy, opportunities for logistics recycling and priority of technosolitons formation within the market of waste and other contaminants. In order to government regulation of the technogenic damage in the national economy it has been specified some theoretical concepts on identification of tools that, unlike the existing ones, are based on determining the impact of their actions on the nature of regulation and allows the mechanism of government regulation of the technogenic damage include public-private partnerships, social responsibility, technogenic insurance, technogenic reflection of man-made damage and homolohization of the education.